LoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs

2026年8月28日
Active
概率趋势
Dark Passage 59.0%
DIA Ozarox Esports 41.0%

核心摘要

根据「LoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前,Game 1 Winner 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场;Game 2 Winner 以 5,000% 位居第二,Game 3 Winner 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:

🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者

  • Game 1 Winner (5,000%):Game 1 Winner 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢,显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者

  • Game 2 Winner (5,000%):作为最可行的替代选项,Game 2 Winner 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
  • Game 3 Winner (5,000%):以 5,000% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Game 3 Winner 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)

在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:

  • 替代选项:包括 Game 4 Winner (5,000%)、Match Winner (5,000%),以及 O/U 3.5 Games (5,000%)。
  • 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 O/U 4.5 Games 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes(成本)买入 No(成本)
1Game 1 Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
2Game 2 Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
3Game 3 Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
4Game 4 Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
5Match Winner5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
6O/U 3.5 Games5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
7O/U 4.5 Games5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
8Game Handicap: DP (-1.5) vs DIA Ozarox Esports (+1.5)5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
9Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
10Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
11Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
12Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
13Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
14Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
15Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
16Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
17Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
18Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
19Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
20Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
21Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
22Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
23Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
24Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
25Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
26Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
27Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
28Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
29Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
30Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
31Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
32Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
33Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
34Both Teams Slay a Dragon5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
35Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
36Any Player Quadra Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
37Any Player Penta Kill5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
38Odd/Even Total Kills5000.0%5000¢-4900¢
39Game Handicap: DP (-2.5) vs DIA Ozarox Esports (+2.5)4950.0%4950¢-4850¢

裁决规则

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between DIA Ozarox Esports and Dark Passage in the TCL Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET.

This market will resolve to "DIA Ozarox Esports" if DIA Ozarox Esports win the match against Dark Passage.

This market will resolve to "Dark Passage" if Dark Passage win the match against DIA Ozarox Esports.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of August 27, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.

If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

常见问题

当前市场对「LoL: DIA Ozarox Esports vs Dark Passage (BO5) - TCL Playoffs」的共识是什么?

截至最新更新,Game 1 Winner 以 5,000% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Game 2 Winner(5,000%),以及 Game 3 Winner(5,000%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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