Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

根据「Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，United Russia 以压倒性的 4,350% 获胜概率主导市场；CPRF 以 4,300% 位居第二，A Just Russia 以 4,250% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• United Russia (4,350%)：United Russia 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• CPRF (4,300%)：作为最可行的替代选项，CPRF 保持着 4,300% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,300¢。
• A Just Russia (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的概率位列第三，市场对 A Just Russia 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 New People (4,250%)、LDPR (4,200%)，以及 Communists of Russia (4,200%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Rodina 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast as a result of this election.

The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Leningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.

A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Leningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Leningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.