Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

$1.4M Vol
2026年12月31日
Active
概率趋势
December 31 46.5%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? 0.1%

核心摘要

根据「Lai Ching-te impeached by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No 以压倒性的 5,350% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 4,650% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $1.4M，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • No (5,350%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,350¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Yes (4,650%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 4,650% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,650¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1No5350.0%—5350¢-5250¢
2Yes4650.0%—4650¢-4550¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Jun 28, 2026

  • 07:00 PM
    ——
    $1.12

    Sold 1.12 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 06:35 PM
    ——
    $1.04

    Sold 1.04 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 05:54 PM
    ——
    $0.26

    Sold 0.26 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    JOJourneyJolt
    $144.46

    Bought 144.46 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    QUQuestQuip3s
    $269.54

    Bought 269.54 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:53 PM
    HEHeroHiccup3xe
    $202.75

    Bought 202.75 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:52 PM
    FAFableFizzle
    $127.33

    Bought 127.33 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:52 PM
    LELegendLilt
    $297.25

    Bought 297.25 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 04:51 PM
    ——
    $1.37

    Bought 1.371 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 03:03 PM
    GRGregorian
    $38.59

    Bought 38.59 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 03:03 PM
    ——
    $1.56

    Sold 1.56 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

  • 02:29 PM
    ——
    $0.57

    Sold 0.57 No for Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? at 1

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

SI1
simplystupid188
Event PnL
-$35.15
Volume
$1,384.53
Positions
Yes
UL2
ultralisk
Event PnL
-$1.95
Volume
$1,094.72
Positions
Yes
LA3
labistiiia
Event PnL
-$0.49
Volume
$985.79
Positions
Yes
RC4
0xrc
Event PnL
+$10.20
Volume
$962.61
Positions
No
PU5
purebaby
Event PnL
-$10.85
Volume
$799.98
Positions
Yes
MU6
Mustwiner
Event PnL
-$10.49
Volume
$723.33
Positions
Yes
MO7
monjon678
Event PnL
+$23.53
Volume
$719.23
Positions
No
RO8
Rogue54
Event PnL
+$0.31
Volume
$620.62
Positions
No

常见问题

当前市场对「Lai Ching-te impeached by...?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，No 以 5,350% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Yes（4,650%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1.4M，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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