July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
核心摘要
根据「July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，1.20–1.24ºC 以压倒性的 88% 获胜概率主导市场；1.10–1.14ºC 以 46% 位居第二，1.15–1.19ºC 以 45% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $52.8K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 1.20–1.24ºC (88%)：1.20–1.24ºC 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 88¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12.6K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 1.10–1.14ºC (46%)：作为最可行的替代选项，1.10–1.14ºC 保持着 46% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 46¢。
- 1.15–1.19ºC (45%)：以 45% 的概率位列第三，市场对 1.15–1.19ºC 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 >1.29ºC (44%)、<1.10ºC (43%)，以及 1.25–1.29ºC (16%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 >1.29ºC 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.20–1.24ºC | 88.0% | $12.6K | 88¢ | 12¢ |
| 2 | 1.10–1.14ºC | 46.0% | $4.3K | 46¢ | 54¢ |
| 3 | 1.15–1.19ºC | 45.0% | $9.9K | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| 4 | >1.29ºC | 44.0% | $4.0K | 44¢ | 56¢ |
| 5 | <1.10ºC | 43.0% | $8.1K | 43¢ | 57¢ |
| 6 | 1.25–1.29ºC | 16.0% | $13.8K | 16¢ | 84¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：1.20–1.24ºC 当前交易价为 88%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 39.8%，形成 -48.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.20–1.24ºC | 88.0% | 39.8% | -48.2% |
| 1.10–1.14ºC | 46.0% | 13.2% | -32.8% |
| 1.15–1.19ºC | 45.0% | 10.6% | -34.4% |
| >1.29ºC | 44.0% | 18.9% | -25.1% |
| <1.10ºC | 43.0% | 20.0% | -23.0% |
| 1.25–1.29ºC | 16.0% | 10.7% | -5.3% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jul 30, 2026
- 11:56 AM0X0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209$85.85
Bought 296.03 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.29
- 08:56 AMSAsanduspace$0.00
Sold 1 Yes for Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026? at 0
- 08:56 AM0X0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271$0.14
Bought 14.25 Yes for Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in July 2026? at 0.01
- 08:56 AMAJAJSV$0.52
Bought 5.21 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.1
- 08:56 AM——$1.05
Sold 10.54 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.1
- 08:56 AM0X0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271$1.43
Bought 14.25 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.1
- 08:56 AM0X0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271$0.00
Bought 14.25 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026? at 0
- 08:56 AM0X0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271$0.14
Bought 14.25 Yes for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in July 2026? at 0.01
- 08:56 AM0X0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271$10.55
Bought 14.25 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026? at 0.74
- 04:47 AM0X0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209$77.54
Bought 310.14 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.25
- 04:47 AM0X0x34dBc406881A24B82F4b138e09169d9a004B1B63-1777004802209$21.07
Bought 84.28 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026? at 0.25
- 12:52 AM——$0.69
Sold 1.24 Yes for Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026? at 0.56
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，1.20–1.24ºC 以 88% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 1.10–1.14ºC（46%），以及 1.15–1.19ºC（45%）。该市场总成交量已达 $52.8K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 1.20–1.24ºC 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 88%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 39.8%，形成 -48.2% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。