Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

根据「Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，August 31 以压倒性的 1,050% 获胜概率主导市场；July 31 以 750% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $1.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• August 31 (1,050%)：August 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $842 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• July 31 (750%)：作为最可行的替代选项，July 31 保持着 750% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 750¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a diplomatic meeting between official representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both specified countries or political entities. who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities, deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation between the countries.

Both direct and indirect meetings will qualify. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of the specified entities directly interact with each other in person. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city, with the intermediary conveying diplomatic communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the specified entities is separately held alongside such a convening.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.