ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026

根据「ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，<51.0 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；51.0–51.9 以 5,000% 位居第二，52.0–52.9 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• <51.0 (5,000%)：<51.0 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 51.0–51.9 (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，51.0–51.9 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• 52.0–52.9 (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 52.0–52.9 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 53.0–53.9 (5,000%)、54.0–54.9 (5,000%)，以及 55.0–55.9 (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 56.0–56.9 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.

Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.