How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?

根据「How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，<25 以压倒性的 4,150% 获胜概率主导市场；50-74 以 4,150% 位居第二，25-49 以 4,100% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• <25 (4,150%)：<25 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,150¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 50-74 (4,150%)：作为最可行的替代选项，50-74 保持着 4,150% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,150¢。
• 25-49 (4,100%)：以 4,100% 的概率位列第三，市场对 25-49 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 75-99 (4,100%)，以及 100+ (4,100%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 75-99 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.