How long will Trump’s Las Vegas remarks be?

根据「How long will Trump’s Las Vegas remarks be?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，<20 minutes 以压倒性的 4,300% 获胜概率主导市场；20-30 minutes 以 4,300% 位居第二，30-40 minutes 以 4,300% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• <20 minutes (4,300%)：<20 minutes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,300¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 20-30 minutes (4,300%)：作为最可行的替代选项，20-30 minutes 保持着 4,300% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,300¢。
• 30-40 minutes (4,300%)：以 4,300% 的概率位列第三，市场对 30-40 minutes 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 40-50 minutes (4,300%)、50-60 minutes (4,300%)，以及 60-70 minutes (4,300%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 70-80 minutes 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks in Las Vegas on August 5, 2026 at 4:30 PM ET (https://www.forth.news/whpool/CdeLprcbvz7bozG74CZuy).

This market will resolve based on the length of time of Donald Trump's Las Vegas remarks.

The speech length will be measured from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during the Las Vegas remarks until the moment he finishes his speech. If Trump remains at the podium and continues speaking (e.g. saying "Thank you" to the crowd) this will not count toward the length of his address. If Trump allows another individual to speak before he finishes his own speech, that time will count towards the duration of his speech.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the start of Trump’s Las Vegas remarks is cancelled or delayed beyond August 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.