Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
核心摘要
根据「Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Pause–Pause–Pause 以压倒性的 45.5% 获胜概率主导市场；Other 以 43.5% 位居第二，Pause–Pause–Cut 以 7% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $97.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Pause–Pause–Pause (45.5%)：Pause–Pause–Pause 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 46¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $38.2K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Other (43.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Other 保持着 43.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 44¢。
- Pause–Pause–Cut (7%)：以 7% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Pause–Pause–Cut 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 4%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 Pause–Cut–Pause (0.7%)、Pause–Cut–Cut (0.7%)，以及 Cut–Pause–Cut (0.4%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Cut–Cut–Pause 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pause–Pause–Pause | 45.5% | $38.2K | 46¢ | 55¢ |
| 2 | Other | 43.5% | $49.9K | 44¢ | 57¢ |
| 3 | Pause–Pause–Cut | 7.0% | $3.8K | 7¢ | 93¢ |
| 4 | Pause–Cut–Pause | 0.7% | $1.2K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 5 | Pause–Cut–Cut | 0.7% | $1.2K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 6 | Cut–Pause–Cut | 0.4% | $961 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 7 | Cut–Cut–Pause | 0.4% | $730 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 8 | Cut–Pause–Pause | 0.4% | $1.0K | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| 9 | Cut–Cut–Cut | 0.4% | $645 | 0¢ | 100¢ |
裁决规则
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Pause–Pause–Pause 当前交易价为 45.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 31.5%，形成 -14.1% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Pause–Cut–Cut 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.7% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 24%——形成可观的 +23.3% EV 差。
- 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Cut–Cut–Pause（EV 差：+20.9%）以及 Cut–Cut–Cut（EV 差：+20.5%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pause–Pause–Pause | 45.5% | 31.4% | -14.1% |
| Other | 43.5% | 34.5% | -9.0% |
| Pause–Pause–Cut | 7.0% | 8.1% | +1.0% |
| Pause–Cut–Pause | 0.7% | 15.6% | +14.9% |
| Pause–Cut–CutBest EV | 0.7% | 24.0% | +23.3% |
| Cut–Pause–Cut | 0.4% | 20.2% | +19.8% |
| Cut–Cut–Pause | 0.4% | 21.3% | +20.9% |
| Cut–Pause–Pause | 0.4% | 20.4% | +20.0% |
| Cut–Cut–Cut | 0.4% | 20.9% | +20.5% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:06 AMDEderMalen$18.44
Sold 40.97 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 07:58 AMTRtruegaga$18.44
Sold 40.97 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 07:47 AMJJjjloh$18.44
Sold 40.97 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 07:38 AMUUuuusdl$6.45
Sold 15 Yes for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.43
- 07:37 AMLOloreds$18.44
Sold 40.97 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 07:27 AMGAGanva$18.44
Sold 40.97 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 06:03 AMSKskdfjnkrhdckubwieyrsgvd$34.91
Sold 62.34 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.56
- 06:01 AMSKskdfjnkrhdckubwieyrsgvd$11.87
Sold 26.38 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.45
- 06:01 AMSKskdfjnkrhdckubwieyrsgvd$8.45
Sold 19.64 Yes for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.43
- 02:29 AMJIjiantie$112.53
Bought 204.6 No for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.55
- 02:29 AMWEweifengcai$94.55
Bought 205.54 Yes for Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.46
Jun 29, 2026
- 04:04 PMSFsfud$8.36
Sold 14.92 No for Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? at 0.56
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Pause–Pause–Pause 以 45.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Other（43.5%），以及 Pause–Pause–Cut（7%）。该市场总成交量已达 $97.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Pause–Cut–Cut 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 0.7%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 24%——形成 +23.3% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Pause–Pause–Pause 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 45.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 31.5%，形成 -14.1% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。
长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？
当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Cut–Cut–Pause 拥有 +20.9% 的正 EV 差，Cut–Cut–Cut 则为 +20.5%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。