EWC 2026: Longest Game Duration

根据「EWC 2026: Longest Game Duration」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Under 80 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；106–110 以 5,000% 位居第二，111+ 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Under 80 (5,000%)：Under 80 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 106–110 (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，106–110 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• 111+ (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 111+ 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 80–85 (2,600%)、86–90 (2,600%)，以及 91–95 (2,600%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 96–100 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve based on the in-game duration of the single longest game (map) played across the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) Dota 2 tournament, held July 7–19, 2026 in Paris, France.

"Duration" means the in-game duration of a single game as recorded by the resolution source — measured by the in-game clock from game start to the game's conclusion (the destruction of the losing team's Ancient or a called game). It does not include the draft/pick-ban phase or paused time, consistent with how Dota 2 records game length.

Each game's duration is rounded down to the last fully completed minute for bucketing (e.g., a game lasting 85 minutes and 42 seconds counts as 85 minutes and falls in the "80–85" bracket; a game lasting 90 minutes and 5 seconds counts as 90 and falls in the "86–90" bracket).

Only completed official games count (group stage, survival/gauntlet stage, and playoffs). A game that is remade or not completed does not count. The market resolves to the single bracket containing the duration of the longest qualifying game in the tournament.

If the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results are not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."

The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.