Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?

$66.9K Vol
2026年8月20日
Active
概率趋势
Up 97.3%
Down 2.7%

核心摘要

根据「Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Up 以压倒性的 9,685% 获胜概率主导市场；Down 以 315% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $66.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Up (9,685%)：Up 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,685¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Down (315%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Down 保持着 315% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 315¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Up9685.0%—9685¢-9585¢
2Down315.0%—315¢-215¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 20 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 19, 2026

  • 09:24 PM
    GEGennaro6z
    $39.82

    Sold 41.92 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.95

  • 09:19 PM
    ANAntonio-1729
    $4.95

    Bought 5.103066 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.97

  • 09:19 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $17.78

    Bought 355.571111 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:17 PM
    WYWYFSK
    $0.83

    Bought 16.5 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:15 PM
    88888ll
    $9.98

    Bought 10.288035 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.97

  • 09:11 PM
    WYWYFSK
    $0.75

    Bought 15 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.05

  • 09:08 PM
    COComTruise
    $19.60

    Bought 20 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.98

  • 09:04 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $9.34

    Sold 311.33 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.03

  • 09:04 PM
    T0t00000000
    $4.00

    Bought 99.91 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.04

  • 09:04 PM
    0X0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452
    $896.64

    Bought 934 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.96

  • 08:56 PM
    NEneskipa
    $13.00

    Bought 13.54165 Up for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.96

  • 08:55 PM
    0X0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-1783406009396
    $280.37

    Bought 4672.89 Down for Ethereum Up or Down on August 20? at 0.06

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

GO1
gobblewobble
Event PnL
-$1.53
Volume
$10,166.56
Positions
Up
KI2
kingofcoinflips
Event PnL
-$390.53
Volume
$5,863.26
Positions
Down
FD3
0xfdc0…5e6a
Event PnL
-$445.90
Volume
$2,547.99
Positions
Down
T04
t00000000
Event PnL
+$10.50
Volume
$1,400.01
Positions
Down
CO5
ComTruise
Event PnL
+$4.57
Volume
$1,240.58
Positions
Down
IH6
IH2P
Event PnL
-$50.71
Volume
$1,209.00
Positions
Up
CO7
coinfilippe
Event PnL
-$106.22
Volume
$734.17
Positions
Up
068
0x06dc…0452
Event PnL
+$120.00
Volume
$416.57
Positions
Down

常见问题

当前市场对「Ethereum Up or Down on August 20?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Up 以 9,685% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Down（315%）。该市场总成交量已达 $66.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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