Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?

根据「Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，200-219 以压倒性的 1,650% 获胜概率主导市场；220-239 以 1,550% 位居第二，180-199 以 1,350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $57.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• 200-219 (1,650%)：200-219 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,650¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 220-239 (1,550%)：作为最可行的替代选项，220-239 保持着 1,550% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,550¢。
• 180-199 (1,350%)：以 1,350% 的概率位列第三，市场对 180-199 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 240-259 (1,350%)、280-299 (1,000%)，以及 260-279 (950%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 160-179 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.

The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.