Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$1,257.8M Vol
2028年11月7日
Active

核心摘要

根据「Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 以压倒性的 22.4% 获胜概率主导市场；Gavin Newsom 以 17% 位居第二，Jon Ossoff 以 15.2% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1,257.8M，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (22.4%)：Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 22¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $14.6M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Gavin Newsom (17%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Gavin Newsom 保持着 17% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 17¢。
  • Jon Ossoff (15.2%)：以 15.2% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Jon Ossoff 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 45.5%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Kamala Harris (7.4%)、Pete Buttigieg (5.3%)，以及 Josh Shapiro (4.9%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Mark Kelly 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez22.4%$14.6M22¢78¢
2Gavin Newsom17.0%$26.7M17¢83¢
3Jon Ossoff15.2%$12.6M15¢85¢
4Kamala Harris7.4%$12.9M7¢93¢
5Pete Buttigieg5.3%$11.8M5¢95¢
6Josh Shapiro4.9%$9.5M5¢95¢
7Mark Kelly3.1%$17.2M3¢97¢
8Rahm Emanuel2.5%$14.5M2¢98¢
9Andy Beshear2.3%$13.0M2¢98¢
10Ro Khanna2.3%$11.2M2¢98¢
11James Talarico1.9%$10.5M2¢98¢
12Wes Moore1.6%$17.5M2¢98¢
13J.B. Pritzker1.1%$15.4M1¢99¢
14Jon Stewart1.1%$24.6M1¢99¢
15Gretchen Whitmer0.8%$11.9M1¢99¢
16Michelle Obama0.7%$26.1M1¢99¢
17Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson0.7%$12.4M1¢99¢
18Raphael Warnock0.7%$32.1M1¢99¢
19Mark Cuban0.5%$22.8M1¢99¢
20Cory Booker0.5%$25.6M1¢99¢
21Bernie Sanders0.5%$52.7M1¢99¢
22Hunter Biden0.5%$44.1M1¢99¢
23Chelsea Clinton0.4%$50.2M0¢100¢
24Stephen A. Smith0.4%$21.6M0¢100¢
25Zohran Mamdani0.4%$38.6M0¢100¢
26Roy Cooper0.4%$31.4M0¢100¢
27John Fetterman0.4%$24.4M0¢100¢
28George Clooney0.4%$42.9M0¢100¢
29Oprah Winfrey0.4%$54.2M0¢100¢
30Chris Murphy0.4%$17.1M0¢100¢
31Jasmine Crockett0.4%$36.3M0¢100¢
32Ruben Gallego0.4%$8.3M0¢100¢
33Gina Raimondo0.3%$35.6M0¢100¢
34Jared Polis0.3%$27.2M0¢100¢
35Barack Obama0.3%$33.9M0¢100¢
36Hillary Clinton0.3%$43.6M0¢100¢
37Liz Cheney0.3%$38.4M0¢100¢
38LeBron James0.3%$43.8M0¢100¢
39MrBeast0.3%$40.9M0¢100¢
40Andrew Yang0.3%$48.4M0¢100¢
41Beto O’Rourke0.3%$42.7M0¢100¢
42Graham Platner0.3%$8.0M0¢100¢
43Elissa Slotkin0.3%$906.0K0¢100¢
44Tim Walz0.1%$43.0M0¢100¢
45Phil Murphy0.1%$42.2M0¢100¢
46Kim Kardashian0.1%$42.7M0¢100¢
47Abigail Spanberger0.1%$220.5K0¢100¢
48Hakeem Jeffries0.1%$224.2K0¢100¢
49Adam Schiff0.1%$133.6K0¢100¢
50Josh Stein0.1%$973.0K0¢100¢
51Alex Padilla0.1%$210.2K0¢100¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 当前交易价为 22.4%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 11.5%，形成 -10.9% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 James Talarico 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 2% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 12.2%——形成可观的 +10.3% EV 差。
  • 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Liz Cheney（EV 差：+3.2%）以及 Raphael Warnock（EV 差：+2.6%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez22.4%11.5%-10.9%
Gavin Newsom17.0%17.2%+0.2%
Jon Ossoff15.2%7.1%-8.0%
Kamala Harris7.4%6.6%-0.8%
Pete Buttigieg5.3%3.3%-1.9%
Josh Shapiro4.9%3.3%-1.5%
Mark Kelly3.1%1.0%-2.1%
Rahm Emanuel2.5%1.4%-1.1%
Andy Beshear2.3%1.8%-0.5%
Ro Khanna2.3%0.8%-1.4%
James TalaricoBest EV1.9%12.2%+10.3%
Wes Moore1.6%1.0%-0.6%
J.B. Pritzker1.1%0.8%-0.4%
Jon Stewart1.1%1.5%+0.4%
Gretchen Whitmer0.8%0.4%-0.4%
Michelle Obama0.7%0.1%-0.6%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson0.7%1.3%+0.6%
Raphael Warnock0.7%3.2%+2.6%
Mark Cuban0.5%0.3%-0.3%
Cory Booker0.5%0.1%-0.5%
Bernie Sanders0.5%0.3%-0.3%
Hunter Biden0.5%0.3%-0.2%
Chelsea Clinton0.4%0.4%-0.1%
Stephen A. Smith0.4%0.6%+0.3%
Zohran Mamdani0.4%0.4%+0.0%
Roy Cooper0.4%0.3%-0.0%
John Fetterman0.4%0.5%+0.2%
George Clooney0.4%0.1%-0.2%
Oprah Winfrey0.4%0.3%-0.1%
Chris Murphy0.4%0.3%-0.1%
Jasmine Crockett0.4%0.2%-0.2%
Ruben Gallego0.4%0.3%-0.1%
Gina Raimondo0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Jared Polis0.3%0.4%+0.1%
Barack Obama0.3%1.0%+0.8%
Hillary Clinton0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Liz Cheney0.3%3.5%+3.2%
LeBron James0.3%0.3%+0.0%
MrBeast0.3%0.2%-0.0%
Andrew Yang0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Beto O’Rourke0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Graham Platner0.3%0.2%-0.1%
Elissa Slotkin0.3%0.0%-0.2%
Tim Walz0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Phil Murphy0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Kim Kardashian0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Abigail Spanberger0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Hakeem Jeffries0.1%0.0%-0.1%
Adam Schiff0.1%0.0%-0.1%
Josh Stein0.1%0.0%-0.1%
Alex Padilla0.1%0.0%-0.1%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 14, 2026

  • 07:25 AM
    HKhklcrypt
    $2.12

    Bought 2.122 No for Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:19 AM
    0X0x7810393cE8025298145bf36EE952333aEb181f4B-1735478036928
    $13.21

    Bought 13.213 No for Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:19 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $1.74

    Bought 1.7938 No for Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.97

  • 07:18 AM
    WOwoshidasc
    $6.99

    Bought 7.352937 No for Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.95

  • 07:17 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $0.16

    Sold 0.17 No for Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.97

  • 07:17 AM
    KOkomca
    $6.01

    Bought 6.012 No for Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:17 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $1.74

    Bought 1.7938 No for Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.97

  • 07:16 AM
    0X0x79f1d1959798b73302FBf3e0B282ac3173bECD41-1772875845115
    $0.29

    Sold 0.3 No for Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.98

  • 07:16 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $0.08

    Sold 0.08 No for Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:15 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $0.30

    Sold 0.3 No for Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:14 AM
    LOlonelyfighter
    $2.00

    Sold 2 No for Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 1

  • 07:13 AM
    NEnengkaijie
    $4.99

    Bought 5.252083 No for Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? at 0.95

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
Event PnL
+$73,332,412.73
Volume
$156,842,960.31
Positions
NoNoNo+48
GL2
gloriafoster
Event PnL
-$171,747.19
Volume
$44,189,303.34
Positions
YesYesYes+27
Q93
Q96s3kwozynxpau
Event PnL
-$2,305,475.20
Volume
$5,661,821.75
Positions
YesYesYes+33
TH4
The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
Event PnL
-$2,429,944.30
Volume
$4,893,216.78
Positions
YesYesYes+17
AN5
AnonymousUsername
Event PnL
-$1,425,481.21
Volume
$3,023,222.71
Positions
YesYesYes+43
AR6
Arbguy
Event PnL
+$7,804.40
Volume
$2,616,350.31
Positions
YesYesYes
NO7
novice99
Event PnL
-$11,866.51
Volume
$2,571,947.41
Positions
YesYesYes+1
JU8
JustCrazy
Event PnL
-$19,478.29
Volume
$2,421,526.77
Positions
YesYesYes+4

常见问题

当前市场对「Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 以 22.4% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Gavin Newsom（17%），以及 Jon Ossoff（15.2%）。该市场总成交量已达 $1,257.8M，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，James Talarico 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 2%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 12.2%——形成 +10.3% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 22.4%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 11.5%，形成 -10.9% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？

当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Liz Cheney 拥有 +3.2% 的正 EV 差，Raphael Warnock 则为 +2.6%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。

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