Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets
核心摘要
根据「Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Both Teams to Score 以压倒性的 50% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $120.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Both Teams to Score (50%)：Both Teams to Score 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 50¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $884 的成交量。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Both Teams to Score | 50.0% | $884 | 50¢ | 50¢ |
裁决规则
More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for August 23 at 5:30 PM ET.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Both Teams to Score 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 50% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 50.7%——形成可观的 +0.7% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to ScoreBest EV | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Aug 23, 2026
- 07:46 PMSUsuperDG$1.00
Bought 2.439023 Over for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.41
- 07:37 PMGEGerminatedPoli$2.00
Bought 2.1978 Over for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 0.5 at 0.91
- 07:32 PMELELGOD1$1.95
Bought 3.25 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.6
- 07:29 PMSUsuntori$6.66
Bought 16.243901 Over for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: São Paulo FC O/U 1.5 at 0.41
- 07:09 PMNANaifsalame$5.20
Bought 8.666665 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.6
- 07:09 PMBLBlessedSunshine888$5.29
Bought 5.63 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 at 0.94
- 07:08 PM——$1.39
Bought 1.478716 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 at 0.94
- 07:08 PMSWswisstony$13.95
Bought 15 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 1st Half O/U 1.5 at 0.93
- 07:05 PMLIlibertz$6.03
Bought 15.47 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol O/U 0.5 at 0.39
- 07:05 PMYOYoosi10$3.90
Bought 6.5 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.6
- 07:05 PMDVdvirsigron$6.50
Bought 10.833332 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.6
- 07:03 PM0X0x00632523fd701f7eA73601eE23cD7fF76e3cD005-1775776079074$1.95
Bought 3.25 Under for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 2.5 at 0.6
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Both Teams to Score 以 50% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $120.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Both Teams to Score 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 50%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 50.7%——形成 +0.7% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。