Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?

$147.5K Vol
2026年8月19日
Active
概率趋势
Down 64.5%
Up 35.5%

核心摘要

根据「Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Down 以压倒性的 6,450% 获胜概率主导市场；Up 以 3,550% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $147.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Down (6,450%)：Down 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,450¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Up (3,550%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Up 保持着 3,550% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,550¢。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Down6450.0%—6450¢-6350¢
2Up3550.0%—3550¢-3450¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 19 '26 12:00 ET candle.

If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Aug 18, 2026

  • 09:03 AM
    RAravenzone55
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:46 AM
    STsteel.j
    $1.55

    Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:31 AM
    GIgigaqueen1980william
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:30 AM
    DRdragon576
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 08:23 AM
    PUpulsevoidcore
    $1.55

    Bought 3.039214 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:22 AM
    DAdatalord21hunt
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 08:19 AM
    DAdark.crossironai699
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:53 AM
    DAdarksys2001
    $2.55

    Bought 5 Up for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.51

  • 07:49 AM
    LIlightcorekimberlyfox
    $1.50

    Bought 3 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:43 AM
    DRdragonaivoidpilot269
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 07:31 AM
    COcorepro27
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

  • 06:59 AM
    NOnovaaitigerlt
    $2.50

    Bought 5 Down for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19? at 0.5

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

D01
0xd04b…7276
Event PnL
-$2,256.55
Volume
$19,999.94
Positions
Up
KI2
kingofcoinflips
Event PnL
-$56.92
Volume
$19,190.02
Positions
Down
ZZ3
Zzzz87
Event PnL
-$221.30
Volume
$5,332.00
Positions
Up
064
0x06dc…0452
Event PnL
+$682.50
Volume
$5,173.67
Positions
Down
FD5
0xfdc0…5e6a
Event PnL
+$360.44
Volume
$5,095.95
Positions
Down
T06
t00000000
Event PnL
-$146.24
Volume
$3,990.00
Positions
Up
CO7
coinfilippe
Event PnL
+$1.86
Volume
$2,795.31
Positions
Down
GO8
Goldismoney
Event PnL
-$102.28
Volume
$1,759.03
Positions
Up

常见问题

当前市场对「Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Down 以 6,450% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Up（3,550%）。该市场总成交量已达 $147.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

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