Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?
核心摘要
根据「Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，62,000 以压倒性的 9,900% 获胜概率主导市场；64,000 以 9,880% 位居第二，66,000 以 9,790% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $45.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- 62,000 (9,900%)：62,000 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,900¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $447 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- 64,000 (9,880%)：作为最可行的替代选项，64,000 保持着 9,880% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 9,880¢。
- 66,000 (9,790%)：以 9,790% 的概率位列第三，市场对 66,000 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 68,000 (9,700%)、70,000 (9,450%)，以及 72,000 (8,850%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 74,000 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62,000 | 9900.0% | $447 | 9900¢ | -9800¢ |
| 2 | 64,000 | 9880.0% | $10 | 9880¢ | -9780¢ |
| 3 | 66,000 | 9790.0% | $2.0K | 9790¢ | -9690¢ |
| 4 | 68,000 | 9700.0% | $52 | 9700¢ | -9600¢ |
| 5 | 70,000 | 9450.0% | $815 | 9450¢ | -9350¢ |
| 6 | 72,000 | 8850.0% | $646 | 8850¢ | -8750¢ |
| 7 | 74,000 | 7650.0% | $382 | 7650¢ | -7550¢ |
| 8 | 76,000 | 6000.0% | $1.3K | 6000¢ | -5900¢ |
| 9 | 78,000 | 4295.0% | $2.1K | 4295¢ | -4195¢ |
| 10 | 80,000 | 2750.0% | $1.2K | 2750¢ | -2650¢ |
| 11 | 82,000 | 1735.0% | $37.7K | 1735¢ | -1635¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Aug 21, 2026
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.33
Bought 42.73 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$1,000.00
Bought 3846.153845 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.26
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.49
Bought 18.575095 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.39
Bought 42.81 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.59
Bought 18.703461 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$1,015.68
Bought 3906.460897 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.26
- 09:16 AMPCPCrylikebaby$33.98
Bought 43.57 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:16 AM0X0x45DBCC1a4F9a9b80d21BcBF1D576a055fa1451c$980.39
Bought 3921.568626 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.25
- 09:16 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$14.86
Bought 19.050063 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:12 AMSHshellyab$4.93
Bought 13.698629 Yes for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27? at 0.36
- 09:11 AMPCPCrylikebaby$32.02
Bought 41.05 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
- 09:11 AM0X0xA8fB2E2a61059B5d0D4Ab220526CB1b5179Ef73d-1783087505408$13.77
Bought 17.653845 No for Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? at 0.78
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Bitcoin above ___ on August 27?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，62,000 以 9,900% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 64,000（9,880%），以及 66,000（9,790%）。该市场总成交量已达 $45.7K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。