Bank of Canada Decision in September?

根据「Bank of Canada Decision in September?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，No Change 以压倒性的 5,700% 获胜概率主导市场；50+ bps increase 以 3,200% 位居第二，25 bps increase 以 2,950% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $110，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• No Change (5,700%)：No Change 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,700¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• 50+ bps increase (3,200%)：作为最可行的替代选项，50+ bps increase 保持着 3,200% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,200¢。
• 25 bps increase (2,950%)：以 2,950% 的概率位列第三，市场对 25 bps increase 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 25 bps decrease (2,950%)，以及 50+ bps decrease (2,800%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 25 bps decrease 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.

The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.

If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.

If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.