Will gas hit __ by end of August?

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Will gas hit __ by end of August?”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, ↓ $3.90 is dominating the market with an overwhelming 5,050% chance of winning. ↑ $4.25 follows in second place at 4,950%, while ↓ $3.70 sits in third with 4,950%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached —, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• ↓ $3.90 (5,050%): Currently commanding the highest probability, ↓ $3.90 is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 5,050¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• ↑ $4.25 (4,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, ↑ $4.25 maintains a 4,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 4,950¢.
• ↓ $3.70 (4,950%): Sitting in third place with a 4,950% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward ↓ $3.70, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ↑ $4.50 (4,800%), ↓ $3.50 (4,800%), and ↓ $3.25 (4,750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ↑ $4.75 are still attracting notable interest.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and August 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price for options marked ↑ (High), or equal to or below the listed price for options marked ↓ (Low). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".