Hamilton Mayoral Election

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “Hamilton Mayoral Election”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, Keanin Loomis is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,950% chance of winning. Scarlett Gillespie follows in second place at 3,850%, while Ejaz Butt sits in third with 3,800%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $40, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• Keanin Loomis (4,950%): Currently commanding the highest probability, Keanin Loomis is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,950¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $7 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• Scarlett Gillespie (3,850%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, Scarlett Gillespie maintains a 3,850% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 3,850¢.
• Ejaz Butt (3,800%): Sitting in third place with a 3,800% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward Ejaz Butt, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes Andrea Horwath (3,750%), Sasha Austin (3,750%), and Rob Cooper (3,750%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like Pamela Mitchell are still attracting notable interest.

The 2026 Hamilton, ON mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Hamilton as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Hamilton.