August Inflation China - Annual

According to the latest prediction market data for the query “August Inflation China - Annual”, traders have formed a strong consensus.

Currently, 0.7% - 0.8% is dominating the market with an overwhelming 4,350% chance of winning. 0.5% - 0.6% follows in second place at 2,950%, while 0.3% - 0.4% sits in third with 1,600%. The betting volume for this specific market has already reached $826, reflecting intense industry interest.

To better assess where each potential outcome stands, the market can be segmented into three distinct trading tiers based on implied probability and contract pricing:

🥇 Tier 1: The Dominant Leader

• 0.7% - 0.8% (4,350%): Currently commanding the highest probability, 0.7% - 0.8% is heavily favored by the order book. Traders looking to back this outcome face a “Buy Yes” contract price of 4,350¢, signaling a high degree of market conviction. This contract alone has generated $573 in volume.

🥈 Tier 2: The Primary Challengers

• 0.5% - 0.6% (2,950%): Positioned as the most viable alternative, 0.5% - 0.6% maintains a 2,950% chance of resolving true. Its “Buy Yes” shares currently trade at 2,950¢.
• 0.3% - 0.4% (1,600%): Sitting in third place with a 1,600% probability, the market shows measured skepticism toward 0.3% - 0.4%, treating it as an outside wildcard unless momentum shifts.

🥉 Tier 3: The Long-Tail Options (Combining for ~0%)

Beyond the top three choices, a wide field of macro variables and long-shot outcomes are being tracked. While their individual probabilities hover low, they represent crucial hedges for speculative traders:

• Alternative Options: This includes ≤0.2% (1,000%), and 0.9%+ (975%).
• Speculative Volume: Despite low statistical likelihood, certain long-tail contracts like ≤0.2% are still attracting notable interest.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.

This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.

The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/