Investment Thesis

Use This Skill When

• The user wants a long, short, neutral, or watchlist thesis that can guide action.
• The task is to turn scattered research into a clear variant view, with catalysts, risks, and monitoring points.
• The analysis must be falsifiable and usable for underwriting, not just descriptive.
• The user needs a synthesis that distinguishes evidence from belief.

Required Inputs

• company and, if available, ticker
• view type: long, short, neutral, or watchlist
• current market narrative or consensus framing
• key supporting evidence: operating data, management commentary, industry context, valuation context, and catalysts
• risk factors: competitive, macro, regulatory, execution, or balance-sheet risks
• time horizon: near-term catalyst trade, 12-month thesis, or multi-year underwriting
• If some evidence is missing, state that the thesis is provisional, reduce confidence, and do not pretend the variant perception is proven.

Workflow

1. Define the posture: long, short, neutral, or watchlist, plus time horizon and required confidence level.
2. State the variant perception in one sentence: what the market likely has wrong or underappreciates.
3. Build the thesis with a small number of pillars, each tied to evidence.
4. Explain the path from thesis to stock outcome:
   • what changes in the business or narrative
   • how and when the market may re-rate
   • what catalysts or disconfirming events matter
5. Address the strongest counterarguments and key risks.
6. Translate the thesis into a monitoring dashboard with explicit invalidation points.
7. End with what would change the analyst's mind.

Output Requirements

• Lead with the core view and the variant perception.
• Keep the thesis falsifiable: include timing, catalysts, risks, and invalidation points.
• Distinguish Fact, Assumption, and Inference.
• Include only the few pillars that carry the thesis; avoid laundry lists.
• If the evidence base is thin, say so and lower the confidence level.

Output Template

Quality Checks

• Verify the variant perception is specific and not just "good company at fair price."
• Check that every thesis pillar includes evidence, not only assertion.
• Confirm that catalysts have a plausible path to market recognition.
• Ensure invalidation points are concrete and not impossibly vague.
• Remove unsupported confidence or probability language.

Guardrails

• Make the thesis falsifiable.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and inferences explicitly.
• Do not invent catalysts, consensus beliefs, or valuation gaps.
• Avoid vague "quality company" or "large market" claims without a variant angle.
• If the stock is interesting but the thesis is not ready, say it is a watchlist candidate rather than forcing conviction.

Example Prompts

• Write a structured investment thesis for this stock with catalysts and invalidation points.
• Turn this research into a bull thesis with a clear variant perception.
• Build a short thesis that states what the market may be missing, why it matters, and what would invalidate the view.