Macro Outlook

Use This Skill When

• The user wants a macro view for a sector, company, asset class, or theme.
• The task requires classifying the current regime rather than listing disconnected macro datapoints.
• The analysis needs to connect rates, inflation, labor, policy, liquidity, and growth to investable outcomes.
• The user wants top-down context before forming a bottom-up view.

Required Inputs

• target scope: single company, sector, asset class, country, or thematic basket
• region: US, Europe, China, global, or another explicit geography
• time horizon: tactical, next 3 to 6 months, next 12 months, or cycle view
• macro focus: inflation, rates, GDP, labor market, liquidity, credit, FX, commodities, policy
• relevant data: CPI, PPI, GDP, payrolls, unemployment, PMIs, retail sales, credit spreads, yield curve, central bank guidance
• If some data is missing, use the highest-signal indicators available, state the missing inputs explicitly, and reduce forecast precision instead of filling gaps with made-up numbers.

Workflow

1. Define the target and why macro matters for it: demand sensitivity, multiple sensitivity, margin sensitivity, funding sensitivity, or FX exposure.
2. Classify the current regime across the core macro axes:
   • growth accelerating, slowing, or bottoming
   • inflation rising, cooling, sticky, or re-accelerating
   • policy tightening, paused, easing, or data-dependent
   • liquidity improving, neutral, or deteriorating
3. Identify the 3 to 5 macro variables that matter most for the target instead of covering everything.
4. Explain the transmission path from macro variables to revenue, margins, valuation multiples, balance sheet risk, or positioning.
5. Build a base case plus one upside and one downside macro variant.
6. End with actionable monitoring signals and a statement of what would change the regime view.

Output Requirements

• Write in a top-down buy-side tone: concise, causal, and explicit about which macro variables actually matter.
• Focus on regime interpretation, not generic macro education.
• Separate facts, assumptions, and inferred market implications when causality is not directly observable.
• Tie every macro point back to the target's earnings power, valuation, flows, or risk profile.
• End with concrete watch items rather than broad commentary.

Output Template

Quality Checks

• Confirm the regime call is based on a small set of priority indicators, not a long undifferentiated macro list.
• Check that each driver has a clear transmission path to the target.
• Verify the time horizon is explicit; tactical and 12-month macro reads should not be mixed casually.
• Make sure base, bull, and bear cases differ in meaningful drivers rather than wording only.
• Re-read the final output and remove any macro claim that is unsupported or not tied to an investment implication.

Guardrails

• Do not turn the output into a generic macro newsletter.
• Do not imply certainty from noisy or lagging indicators.
• Do not mix structural cycle views with short-term trading observations without labeling the horizon.
• Do not force a macro explanation when idiosyncratic factors dominate.
• Do not fabricate economic data, policy paths, or market-implied expectations.

Example Prompts

• Build a macro outlook for US semis over the next 6 months and explain which variables matter most.
• Give me a macro regime view for consumer discretionary with inflation, labor, and rates as the main drivers.
• Frame the macro outlook for European industrials and show the base, bull, and bear transmission paths.