Crack Spread Analysis

Use This Skill When

• The user wants to understand refining margin direction.
• The task involves gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, or product-market tightness.
• The analysis needs to connect crude inputs to downstream product economics.

Required Inputs

• region: US Gulf Coast, Europe, Singapore, or another refining market
• products: gasoline, diesel, jet, fuel oil, naphtha, or chosen basket
• time horizon: spot, next quarter, or seasonal view
• crude input context: benchmark crude and quality mix
• refining inputs: utilization, outages, product inventories, demand trends
• If exact spread data is missing, keep the output directional and explain which product margins are likely driving the change.

Workflow

1. Define the relevant crack spread and region.
2. Review crude input cost and quality context.
3. Assess product demand, inventories, and refining outages.
4. Identify which products are driving margin expansion or compression.
5. Translate the spread move into likely refinery earnings or sentiment implications.
6. Conclude on direction, durability, and key monitoring signals.

Output Requirements

• Keep the focus on refining economics and product tightness.
• Distinguish broad crack moves from single-product distortions.
• State whether the margin move looks cyclical, seasonal, or structurally constrained.
• Tie the spread analysis to refiner exposure when relevant.

Output Template

Quality Checks

• Confirm region and crack definition are explicit.
• Check that product-level drivers are separated.
• Verify utilization and inventory context are included.
• Make sure the conclusion distinguishes short-term dislocation from durable margin change.

Guardrails

• Do not discuss crack spreads without specifying the market and product context.
• Do not assume all refiners have the same exposure mix.
• Do not ignore outages or seasonal demand.
• Do not fabricate spread levels or refinery sensitivities.

Example Prompts

• Analyze current diesel cracks in Europe and what they mean for refiner margins.
• Explain whether US Gulf Coast crack spreads are structurally elevated or temporarily tight.
• Give me a refining margin view based on gasoline and distillate conditions.