World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
核心摘要
根據「World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，5+ missed penalties 以壓倒性的 37.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；10+ missed penalties 以 15.5% 位居第二，15+ missed penalties 以 8.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $88.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- 5+ missed penalties (37.5%)：5+ missed penalties 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 38¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $15.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- 10+ missed penalties (15.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，10+ missed penalties 保持著 15.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 16¢。
- 15+ missed penalties (8.5%)：以 8.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 15+ missed penalties 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 38.5%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 20+ missed penalties (5.5%)、25+ missed penalties (2.8%)，以及 30+ missed penalties (2.5%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 40+ missed penalties 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5+ missed penalties | 37.5% | $15.3K | 38¢ | 63¢ |
| 2 | 10+ missed penalties | 15.5% | $8.2K | 16¢ | 85¢ |
| 3 | 15+ missed penalties | 8.5% | $8.7K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 4 | 20+ missed penalties | 5.5% | $6.0K | 6¢ | 95¢ |
| 5 | 25+ missed penalties | 2.8% | $19.0K | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 6 | 30+ missed penalties | 2.5% | $7.8K | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 7 | 40+ missed penalties | 1.2% | $26.9K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 8 | 35+ missed penalties | 1.1% | $2.6K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 9 | 45+ missed penalties | 0.8% | $1.7K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
| 10 | 50+ missed penalties | 0.7% | $2.9K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of penalty kicks that are missed or saved during the 2026 FIFA World Cup equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：20+ missed penalties 當前交易價為 5.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -4.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 40+ missed penalties 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 1.2% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 24%——形成可觀的 +22.8% EV 差。
- 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 35+ missed penalties（EV 差：+7.3%）以及 10+ missed penalties（EV 差：+0.5%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ missed penalties | 37.5% | 46.9% | +9.4% |
| 10+ missed penalties | 15.5% | 16.0% | +0.5% |
| 15+ missed penalties | 8.5% | 7.2% | -1.3% |
| 20+ missed penalties | 5.5% | 1.0% | -4.5% |
| 25+ missed penalties | 2.8% | 1.3% | -1.5% |
| 30+ missed penalties | 2.5% | 1.2% | -1.2% |
| 40+ missed penaltiesBest EV | 1.2% | 24.0% | +22.8% |
| 35+ missed penalties | 1.1% | 8.4% | +7.3% |
| 45+ missed penalties | 0.8% | 1.0% | +0.2% |
| 50+ missed penalties | 0.7% | 1.0% | +0.4% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jun 30, 2026
- 07:20 AM——$0.00
Sold 320 Yes for Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0
- 07:20 AM——$2.06
Sold 102.89 Yes for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.02
- 07:17 AM——$3.20
Bought 320 Yes for Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.01
- 07:16 AM——$4.12
Bought 102.894735 Yes for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.04
- 07:14 AMYEyenky$2,086.44
Sold 2107.52 No for Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.99
- 07:11 AM——$1.56
Bought 38.888887 Yes for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.04
- 07:01 AMMAmao01$49.92
Sold 52 No for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.96
- 06:41 AMLIlihood91211$0.35
Sold 0.36 No for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.97
- 06:41 AM——$1.78
Bought 59.36111 Yes for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.03
- 05:37 AM——$0.85
Sold 85 Yes for Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.01
- 05:36 AMSPSPLPB$0.88
Sold 87.82 Yes for Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.01
- 05:35 AM0X0x83eeB02e94148f359FA6d8f8030696b774EC5E62-1767951320162$303.42
Sold 15170.94 Yes for Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 0.02
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，5+ missed penalties 以 37.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 10+ missed penalties（15.5%），以及 15+ missed penalties（8.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $88.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，40+ missed penalties 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 1.2%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 24%——形成 +22.8% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 20+ missed penalties 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 5.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%，形成 -4.5% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。
長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？
當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。35+ missed penalties 擁有 +7.3% 的正 EV 差，10+ missed penalties 則為 +0.5%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。