Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)
核心摘要
根據「Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Jannik Sinner 以壓倒性的 9,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；Daniil Medvedev 以 8,500% 位居第二，Felix Auger-Aliassime 以 7,750% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $84.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Jannik Sinner (9,400%)：Jannik Sinner 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $270 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Daniil Medvedev (8,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Daniil Medvedev 保持著 8,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 8,500¢。
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (7,750%)：以 7,750% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Felix Auger-Aliassime 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Alexander Zverev (7,450%)、Novak Djokovic (7,350%)，以及 Ben Shelton (7,300%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Taylor Fritz 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 9400.0% | $270 | 9400¢ | -9300¢ |
| 2 | Daniil Medvedev | 8500.0% | — | 8500¢ | -8400¢ |
| 3 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 7750.0% | $48 | 7750¢ | -7650¢ |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | 7450.0% | — | 7450¢ | -7350¢ |
| 5 | Novak Djokovic | 7350.0% | — | 7350¢ | -7250¢ |
| 6 | Ben Shelton | 7300.0% | $308 | 7300¢ | -7200¢ |
| 7 | Taylor Fritz | 6050.0% | $207 | 6050¢ | -5950¢ |
| 8 | Alex De Minaur | 5550.0% | — | 5550¢ | -5450¢ |
| 9 | Ignacio Buse | 5300.0% | $395 | 5300¢ | -5200¢ |
| 10 | Tommy Paul | 5150.0% | $65 | 5150¢ | -5050¢ |
| 11 | Alex Michelsen | 5100.0% | — | 5100¢ | -5000¢ |
| 12 | Rafael Jodar | 5050.0% | $175 | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 13 | Mariano Navone | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 14 | Jiri Lehecka | 5050.0% | — | 5050¢ | -4950¢ |
| 15 | Joao Fonseca | 5000.0% | $160 | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 16 | Tallon Griekspoor | 4900.0% | — | 4900¢ | -4800¢ |
| 17 | Soonwoo Kwon | 4850.0% | — | 4850¢ | -4750¢ |
| 18 | Kamil Majchrzak | 4800.0% | — | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 19 | Jakub Mensik | 4800.0% | $401 | 4800¢ | -4700¢ |
| 20 | Hubert Hurkacz | 4450.0% | $323 | 4450¢ | -4350¢ |
| 21 | Ethan Quinn | 3850.0% | — | 3850¢ | -3750¢ |
| 22 | Frances Tiafoe | 3800.0% | — | 3800¢ | -3700¢ |
| 23 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 3550.0% | — | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
| 24 | Roman Safiullin | 3450.0% | — | 3450¢ | -3350¢ |
| 25 | Learner Tien | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 26 | Alexander Bublik | 3250.0% | — | 3250¢ | -3150¢ |
| 27 | Karen Khachanov | 3200.0% | — | 3200¢ | -3100¢ |
| 28 | Flavio Cobolli | 2900.0% | — | 2900¢ | -2800¢ |
| 29 | Arthur Fils | 2600.0% | — | 2600¢ | -2500¢ |
| 30 | Matteo Berrettini | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 31 | Ugo Humbert | 2400.0% | — | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 32 | Zizou Bergs | 2400.0% | $40 | 2400¢ | -2300¢ |
| 33 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 2300.0% | — | 2300¢ | -2200¢ |
| 34 | Matteo Arnaldi | 2100.0% | — | 2100¢ | -2000¢ |
| 35 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2050.0% | — | 2050¢ | -1950¢ |
| 36 | Grigor Dimitrov | 2000.0% | — | 2000¢ | -1900¢ |
| 37 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 38 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 39 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1900.0% | — | 1900¢ | -1800¢ |
| 40 | Fabian Marozsan | 1850.0% | — | 1850¢ | -1750¢ |
| 41 | Botic Van de Zandschulp | 1800.0% | — | 1800¢ | -1700¢ |
| 42 | Marton Fucsovics | 1650.0% | — | 1650¢ | -1550¢ |
| 43 | Shintaro Mochizuki | 1600.0% | — | 1600¢ | -1500¢ |
| 44 | Adrian Mannarino | 1550.0% | — | 1550¢ | -1450¢ |
| 45 | Michael Zheng | 1500.0% | — | 1500¢ | -1400¢ |
| 46 | Gabriel Diallo | 1500.0% | — | 1500¢ | -1400¢ |
| 47 | Jacob Fearnley | 1400.0% | — | 1400¢ | -1300¢ |
| 48 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
| 49 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1300.0% | — | 1300¢ | -1200¢ |
| 50 | Brandon Nakashima | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 51 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 52 | Jesper De Jong | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 53 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1250.0% | — | 1250¢ | -1150¢ |
| 54 | Nuno Borges | 1200.0% | — | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 55 | Sebastian Ofner | 1200.0% | — | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 56 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1200.0% | $25 | 1200¢ | -1100¢ |
| 57 | Rinky Hijikata | 1150.0% | $40 | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 58 | Jan Choinski | 1150.0% | — | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 59 | Alexei Popyrin | 1150.0% | — | 1150¢ | -1050¢ |
| 60 | Jack Pinnington Jones | 1100.0% | — | 1100¢ | -1000¢ |
| 61 | Corentin Moutet | 1100.0% | — | 1100¢ | -1000¢ |
| 62 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1050.0% | — | 1050¢ | -950¢ |
| 63 | Dino Prizmic | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 64 | Stan Wawrinka | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 65 | Otto Virtanen | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 66 | Terence Atmane | 900.0% | — | 900¢ | -800¢ |
| 67 | Jenson Brooksby | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 68 | Quentin Halys | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 69 | Marcos Giron | 850.0% | — | 850¢ | -750¢ |
| 70 | Toby Samuel | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 71 | Zachary Svajda | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 72 | Jaime Faria | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 73 | Mackenzie McDonald | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 74 | Daniel Altmaier | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 75 | Nicolas Mejia | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 76 | Billy Harris | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 77 | Raphael Collignon | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 78 | Arthur Fery | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 79 | Daniel Merida | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 80 | Martin Damm | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 81 | Roman Andres Burruchaga | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 82 | Titouan Droguet | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 83 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 84 | Yannick Hanfmann | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 85 | Dane Sweeny | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 86 | Alexander Blockx | 650.0% | — | 650¢ | -550¢ |
| 87 | Damir Dzumhur | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 88 | Kyrian Jacquet | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 89 | Vilius Gaubas | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 90 | Alex Molcan | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 91 | Jaume Munar | 600.0% | — | 600¢ | -500¢ |
| 92 | James Duckworth | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 93 | Sho Shimabukuro | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 94 | Valentin Royer | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 95 | Harry Wendelken | 550.0% | — | 550¢ | -450¢ |
| 96 | Patrick Kypson | 500.0% | — | 500¢ | -400¢ |
| 97 | Vit Kopriva | 400.0% | — | 400¢ | -300¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player clinches a spot in the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in the Championships at Wimbledon per Wimbledon rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed player to clinch a spot in the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in the Championships at Wimbledon (e.g. the player is eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Championships at Wimbledon are cancelled, postponed after July 26, 11:59 PM ET, or the players that qualified for the Fourth Round (Round of 16) have not been officially confirmed by Wimbledon within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the AELTC and ATP; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:30 AMCRcrescendolls$13.20
Bought 20 No for Will Roman Safiullin advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.66
- 08:27 AMCRcrescendolls$11.20
Bought 20 Yes for Will Alex De Minaur advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.56
- 08:27 AMCRcrescendolls$12.20
Bought 20 Yes for Will Taylor Fritz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.61
- 08:17 AMVIViscaElBarca$0.60
Sold 5 Yes for Will Francisco Cerundolo advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.12
- 08:17 AMM3M3RL1N$0.60
Sold 5 Yes for Will Francisco Cerundolo advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.12
- 07:37 AMIMImSweating$20.40
Sold 40 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.51
- 06:34 AM0X0x17337525541B55342D739089568F72f48fEDDC80-1759050031927$10.40
Bought 115.555554 No for Will Jannik Sinner advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.09
- 02:16 AMPOpoteshniylol$14.70
Sold 30 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.49
- 02:06 AMGEgetmetoskii$22.80
Sold 40 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.57
- 02:04 AMGEgetmetoskii$9.45
Sold 21.98 Yes for Will Hubert Hurkacz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.43
- 02:01 AMPOpoteshniylol$11.60
Sold 20 No for Will Jakub Mensik advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.58
- 01:47 AMARArmageddonRewardsBilly$17.05
Sold 39.65 Yes for Will Hubert Hurkacz advance to the Fourth Round (Round of 16) in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026? at 0.43
常見問題
目前市場對「Wimbledon 2026: To Reach Fourth Round (Men’s Singles)」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Jannik Sinner 以 9,400% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Daniil Medvedev（8,500%），以及 Felix Auger-Aliassime（7,750%）。該市場總成交量已達 $84.6K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。