Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day?

根據「Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 5,100% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 4,900% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (5,100%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,100¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (4,900%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 4,900% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,900¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by November 2, 2026 11:59PM ET, the state of Wisconsin or any subdivision thereof announces that it has disqualified or will disqualify at least one individual from casting a valid vote in the 2026 midterm elections because that individual placed a bet or financial trade relating to the outcome of an election, or such a disqualification is otherwise made public. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If a qualifying announcement or disqualification is issued within the specified timeframe, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether the announcement or disqualification is later withdrawn, walked-back, or otherwise revoked. A qualifying announcement need not take legal effect, survive judicial review, or result in a vote being disqualified. A consensus of credible reporting that a disqualification has been issued will also count.

Announcements that the State has received challenges from private individuals or will consider those challenges will not qualify.

Such announcement or disqualification must explicitly pertain to an individual or set of individuals. General statements of the state of Wisconsin's intention or capabilities to take such action, not related to any individual, will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the State of Wisconsin or any subdivision of the state; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.