Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

根據「Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，July 3 以壓倒性的 9,910% 獲勝機率主導市場；July 1 以 9,905% 位居第二，July 6 以 9,250% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $67.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• July 3 (9,910%)：July 3 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,910¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $13.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• July 1 (9,905%)：作為最可行的替代選項，July 1 保持著 9,905% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9,905¢。
• July 6 (9,250%)：以 9,250% 的機率位列第三，市場對 July 6 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 July 5 (9,200%)、July 8 (9,200%)，以及 July 9 (9,200%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 July 10 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.