Will the Total Solar Eclipse be highly visible in Reykjavík?

根據「Will the Total Solar Eclipse be highly visible in Reykjavík?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• No (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Reykjavík Airport (stationID:BIRK) METAR observation at 18:00 UTC on August 12, 2026 reports a Cloud Coverage Level 1 (skyc1) value of SKC, CLR, FEW, or SCT. This market will resolve to "No" if that observation reports BKN, OVC, or VV, or are missing after applying the rules listed below.

If the 18:00 UTC BIRK observation is missing or not reported within 24 hours, the 17:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used instead or, if it is also missing, the 19:00 UTC BIRK observation will be used. If both are missing, this market will resolve based on Keflavík International Airport's (stationID:BIKF) observations using the same time hierarchy.

The primary resolution source is the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) ASOS archive (mesonet.agron.iastate.edu), routine hourly reports only, skyc1 field. The raw METAR text of the qualifying observation governs in the event of any discrepancy in the parsed CSV field.

This market cannot resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. Revisions to the cloud coverage recorded by the resolution source will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

At the time of the launch of this market, a CSV file that will update with the relevant observations can be found here: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/request/asos.py?network=IS__ASOS&station=BIRK&data=skyc1&year1=2026&month1=8&day1=12&year2=2026&month2=8&day2=12&tz=Etc%2FUTC&format=onlycomma&latlon=no&elev=no&missing=M&trace=T&direct=no&report_type=3&report_type=4