Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?

根據「Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31, 2026 以壓倒性的 5,350% 獲勝機率主導市場；September 30, 2026 以 4,500% 位居第二，June 30, 2027 以 4,500% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31, 2026 (5,350%)：December 31, 2026 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,350¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• September 30, 2026 (4,500%)：作為最可行的替代選項，September 30, 2026 保持著 4,500% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,500¢。
• June 30, 2027 (4,500%)：以 4,500% 的機率位列第三，市場對 June 30, 2027 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.