Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?

根據「Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Troy Jackson 以壓倒性的 7,600% 獲勝機率主導市場；Dan Kleban 以 895% 位居第二，Graham Platner 以 750% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $5.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Troy Jackson (7,600%)：Troy Jackson 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7,600¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $3.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Dan Kleban (895%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Dan Kleban 保持著 895% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 895¢。
• Graham Platner (750%)：以 750% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Graham Platner 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Jordan Wood (635%)、Janet Mills (460%)，以及 Jared Golden (450%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Aaron Frey 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the individual who is the Maine Democratic Party's apparent nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election on July 27 at 11:59PM ET.

This market will consider Graham Platner to be the apparent nominee unless he withdraws from the election, voluntarily or otherwise. If Graham Platner has withdrawn from the election, an official announcement by the Maine Democratic Party that an individual has been chosen as the replacement nominee will qualify such individual as the apparent nominee, regardless of any subsequent legal steps that have yet to be confirmed.

In the event that there is not an apparent nominee in this election, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements of the results from the Maine Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.