Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

根據「Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Pete Hegseth 以壓倒性的 7% 獲勝機率主導市場；Benjamin Netanyahu 以 6.9% 位居第二，Steve Witkoff 以 4% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Pete Hegseth (7%)：Pete Hegseth 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 7¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $7.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Benjamin Netanyahu (6.9%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Benjamin Netanyahu 保持著 6.9% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7¢。
• Steve Witkoff (4%)：以 4% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Steve Witkoff 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 82.2%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Shehbaz Sharif (3.8%)、Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (3.8%)，以及 JD Vance (3.7%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Abbas Araghchi 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.

Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.

If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 1.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 28.2%——形成可觀的 +26.7% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Jared Kushner（EV 差：+26%）以及 Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani（EV 差：+23.8%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。