Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

根據「Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，United States 以壓倒性的 4,350% 獲勝機率主導市場；France 以 1,450% 位居第二，United Kingdom 以 1,100% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• United States (4,350%)：United States 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,350¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• France (1,450%)：作為最可行的替代選項，France 保持著 1,450% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,450¢。
• United Kingdom (1,100%)：以 1,100% 的機率位列第三，市場對 United Kingdom 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Germany (950%)、Netherlands (900%)，以及 Italy (600%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Greece 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.