WA-03 Primary First Place

根據「WA-03 Primary First Place」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Antony Barran 以壓倒性的 4,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；John Braun 以 4,400% 位居第二，Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 以 4,400% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Antony Barran (4,400%)：Antony Barran 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• John Braun (4,400%)：作為最可行的替代選項，John Braun 保持著 4,400% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,400¢。
• Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (4,400%)：以 4,400% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Brent Hennrich (4,400%)、Austin Braswell (4,400%)，以及 Lawrence Kellogg (4,400%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 John Saulie-Rohman 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate earns the most votes in the WA-03 non-partisan primary election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the State of Washington.