Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?

根據「Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，August 31 以壓倒性的 4,150% 獲勝機率主導市場；July 31 以 3,950% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• August 31 (4,150%)：August 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,150¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• July 31 (3,950%)：作為最可行的替代選項，July 31 保持著 3,950% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,950¢。

On July 25, 2026, Ukraine said it struck the cargo vessels Port Olya 2 and Begey in the Caspian Sea, alleging that they were involved in transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. You can read more about the strikes here: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-killed-11-tourist-camp-ukraine-strikes-russian-refinery-2026-07-25/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a strike against any vessel in the Caspian Sea attributed to Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) which impact a tanker anywhere in the Caspian Sea, regardless of flag, ownership, or damage level.

Strikes attributed to Ukraine by media or third parties will qualify, regardless of whether Ukraine publicly denies involvement or if definitive attribution is not confirmed.

Ship seizures, boarding, or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. An intercepted missile or drone that does not impact the tanker will not qualify, even if debris lands on or near the vessel.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (EET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.