UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)

$63.3K Vol
2026年7月12日
Active
機率趨勢
Terrance McKinney 50.5%
King Green 49.5%

核心摘要

根據「UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以壓倒性的 59.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 以 30% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $63.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Fight won by KO/TKO? (59.5%)：Fight won by KO/TKO? 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 60¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $316 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • McKinney to win by KO/TKO? (30%)：作為最可行的替代選項，McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 保持著 30% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 30¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Fight won by KO/TKO?59.5%$31660¢41¢
2McKinney to win by KO/TKO?30.0%$6030¢70¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "King Green" if King Green is officially declared the winner of the fight against Terrance McKinney at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Terrance McKinney" if Terrance McKinney is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 當前交易價為 30%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -29% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Fight won by KO/TKO? 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 59.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 67%——形成可觀的 +7.5% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Fight won by KO/TKO?Best EV59.5%67.0%+7.5%
McKinney to win by KO/TKO?30.0%1.0%-29.0%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 10, 2026

  • 07:52 PM
    0X0xae014Dca9aF9781dB4377718b15A7b35b680A952-1758797179036
    $1.00

    Bought 2 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.5

  • 07:49 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 4 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.5

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.93 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $24.98

    Bought 48.98 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:46 PM
    TItimezonewarrior
    $2,369.15

    Bought 4835 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.49

  • 07:39 PM
    0X0xDune0104
    $3.06

    Sold 6 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.51

  • 07:39 PM
    JOjonathanfrake11
    $5.32

    Sold 11.08 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 07:39 PM
    VEVeryLucky888
    $557.46

    Bought 1161.37 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 07:29 PM
    TRTralaleloTralalala
    $33.00

    Bought 62.264148 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.53

  • 07:20 PM
    0X0x8b81cCE898c3c9d737fcA82dbA70f7ebf418988C-1781024142222
    $1.00

    Bought 1.886791 Terrance McKinney for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.53

  • 06:46 PM
    0X0x50Fe43C8fd260197D0e8c23292CfC28915004920-1777734921689
    $20.00

    Bought 41.666665 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.48

  • 06:14 PM
    ——
    $6.98

    Sold 14.86 King Green for UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) at 0.47

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

TI1
timezonewarrior
Event PnL
+$282.51
Volume
$34,210.29
Positions
King Green
VE2
VeryLucky888
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$14,519.22
Positions
Terrance McKinney
BO3
boomingtest
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$7,897.36
Positions
Terrance McKinney
JA4
JAMJAMJAM4
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$4,892.99
Positions
Terrance McKinney
FE5
0xFEd2…1578
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$3,202.40
Positions
Terrance McKinney
FE6
0xFe77…9271
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$2,568.00
Positions
Terrance McKinney
GA7
GambleFroth
Event PnL
+$120.02
Volume
$2,154.05
Positions
King Green
TH8
third-eye
Event PnL
+$0.00
Volume
$1,315.79
Positions
Terrance McKinney

常見問題

目前市場對「UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Fight won by KO/TKO? 以 59.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 McKinney to win by KO/TKO?（30%）。該市場總成交量已達 $63.3K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，Fight won by KO/TKO? 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 59.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 67%——形成 +7.5% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 McKinney to win by KO/TKO? 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 30%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%，形成 -29% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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