UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)

$71.2K Vol
2026年7月12日
Active
機率趨勢
Cory Sandhagen 56.5%
Mario Bautista 43.5%

核心摘要

根據「UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Fight to Go the Distance? 以壓倒性的 60% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $71.2K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Fight to Go the Distance? (60%)：Fight to Go the Distance? 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 60¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $91 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Fight to Go the Distance?60.0%$9160¢40¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Cory Sandhagen" if Cory Sandhagen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mario Bautista at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mario Bautista" if Mario Bautista is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Fight to Go the Distance? 當前交易價為 60%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -59% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Fight to Go the Distance?60.0%1.0%-59.0%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 10, 2026

  • 07:49 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.58 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 07:48 PM
    CHchopboys
    $2.00

    Bought 3.58 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 07:34 PM
    0X0xC567fc4D87f4A4dEa1a4a3632C9C22aEbF3242fD-1781497081769
    $5.00

    Bought 11.11111 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 06:47 PM
    0X0x50Fe43C8fd260197D0e8c23292CfC28915004920-1777734921689
    $10.00

    Bought 17.85714 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 06:36 PM
    TYTylerli01
    $2.00

    Bought 4.444443 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 06:31 PM
    SBSbe3.
    $15.00

    Bought 26.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 05:13 PM
    TOToxic3
    $1.00

    Bought 1.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:58 PM
    MEmetasport
    $1.68

    Bought 3 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:54 PM
    POPolyDegener
    $15.00

    Bought 26.785713 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:23 PM
    ——
    $4.89

    Bought 10.866665 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

  • 04:22 PM
    SASaturnAurum
    $4.00

    Bought 7.142856 Cory Sandhagen for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.56

  • 04:07 PM
    MAmastershi
    $34.60

    Bought 76.888887 Mario Bautista for UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card) at 0.45

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

TI1
timezonewarrior
Event PnL
-$169.78
Volume
$29,676.26
Positions
Mario Bautista
WH2
WHYWHYWHYWHYWHYWHY
Event PnL
-$28.02
Volume
$15,986.07
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
TE3
texaskid
Event PnL
+$41.81
Volume
$8,532.81
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
JO4
Jon-Anik-Fan
Event PnL
+$98.55
Volume
$6,613.98
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
VE5
ve3693
Event PnL
+$99.00
Volume
$6,600.00
Positions
Mario Bautista
GA6
GambleFroth
Event PnL
+$21.88
Volume
$4,464.29
Positions
Cory Sandhagen
IC7
ic4cream
Event PnL
-$60.20
Volume
$4,013.00
Positions
Mario Bautista
OG8
Ogbum
Event PnL
+$13.13
Volume
$2,678.57
Positions
Cory Sandhagen

常見問題

目前市場對「UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Fight to Go the Distance? 以 60% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $71.2K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Fight to Go the Distance? 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 60%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%，形成 -59% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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