Trump approval Up or Down this week?

根據「Trump approval Up or Down this week?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Down 以壓倒性的 5,200% 獲勝機率主導市場；Up 以 4,800% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $75，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Down (5,200%)：Down 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,200¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Up (4,800%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Up 保持著 4,800% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,800¢。

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 31, 2026, than on July 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 24, 2026, than on July 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.

The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.

If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.

This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.

The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.