Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?

根據「Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，June 30 以壓倒性的 4.2% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $5.2M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• June 30 (4.2%)：June 30 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.2M 的成交量。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces that no ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any US-Iran ceasefire commitment to refrain from military hostilities in effect, including statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement. The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.

Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in direct military engagement between the United States and Iran will not qualify.

Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the US government and the US military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：June 30 當前交易價為 4.2%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -3.2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。