What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?

根據「What will Silver (SI) settle at in June?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，$50-$60 以壓倒性的 66.3% 獲勝機率主導市場；$60-$70 以 34.3% 位居第二，<$50 以 0.8% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $817.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• $50-$60 (66.3%)：$50-$60 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 66¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $85.5K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• $60-$70 (34.3%)：作為最可行的替代選項，$60-$70 保持著 34.3% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 34¢。
• <$50 (0.8%)：以 0.8% 的機率位列第三，市場對 <$50 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 $70-$80 (0.3%)、$80-$90 (0.2%)，以及 $90-$100 (0.2%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 $100-$115 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.

For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.

Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.

Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.

Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.

This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.

The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：$50-$60 當前交易價為 66.3%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 17.7%，形成 -48.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 >$115 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 0.1% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 17.3%——形成可觀的 +17.2% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 $70-$80（EV 差：+14%）以及 <$50（EV 差：+10%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。