Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?

根據「Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，<400mm 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；400-425mm 以 5,000% 位居第二，425-450mm 以 5,000% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• <400mm (5,000%)：<400mm 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 400-425mm (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，400-425mm 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。
• 425-450mm (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的機率位列第三，市場對 425-450mm 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 450-475mm (5,000%)、475-500mm (5,000%)，以及 500-525mm (5,000%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 525-550mm 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between July 1 and July 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in July 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the relevant data is not available by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.