Oura IPO Closing Market Cap

$59.5K Vol
2027年1月1日
Active
機率趨勢
$17.5B–$20B 23.5%
$20B+ 17.5%
$7.5B–$10B 13.5%
$10B–$12.5B 12.5%
$15B–$17.5B 12.5%

核心摘要

根據「Oura IPO Closing Market Cap」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，$17.5B–$20B 以壓倒性的 24% 獲勝機率主導市場；$20B+ 以 17.5% 位居第二，$7.5B–$10B 以 13.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $59.5K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • $17.5B–$20B (24%)：$17.5B–$20B 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 24¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $3.5K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • $20B+ (17.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，$20B+ 保持著 17.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 18¢。
  • $7.5B–$10B (13.5%)：以 13.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 $7.5B–$10B 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 45%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 $15B–$17.5B (13%)、$10B–$12.5B (12.5%)，以及 <$7.5B (11.5%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 $12.5B–$15B 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1$17.5B–$20B24.0%$3.5K24¢76¢
2$20B+17.5%$5.3K18¢83¢
3$7.5B–$10B13.5%$20.3K14¢87¢
4$15B–$17.5B13.0%$5.3K13¢87¢
5$10B–$12.5B12.5%$7.8K13¢88¢
6<$7.5B11.5%$10.2K12¢89¢
7$12.5B–$15B8.5%$6.3K9¢92¢
8No IPO before January 20271.5%$8422¢99¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve based on Oura's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before January 2027".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Oura’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：$17.5B–$20B 當前交易價為 24%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 18%，形成 -6% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 $12.5B–$15B 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 8.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 8.8%——形成可觀的 +0.3% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
$17.5B–$20B24.0%18.0%-6.0%
$20B+17.5%15.7%-1.8%
$7.5B–$10B13.5%10.9%-2.6%
$15B–$17.5B13.0%10.2%-2.8%
$10B–$12.5B12.5%10.6%-1.9%
<$7.5B11.5%10.6%-0.9%
$12.5B–$15BBest EV8.5%8.8%+0.3%
No IPO before January 20271.5%1.1%-0.4%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jun 29, 2026

  • 02:22 PM
    MAMalzahar2026
    $1.78

    Sold 22.22 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? at 0.08

Jun 25, 2026

  • 05:45 PM
    ALalvaro25011
    $7.35

    Sold 61.29 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.12

  • 03:11 PM
    BABASSATS01
    $13.37

    Bought 102.85 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.13

  • 02:48 PM
    COColala
    $6.60

    Sold 59.97 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.11

  • 02:48 PM
    COColala
    $7.20

    Sold 60 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.12

  • 01:00 PM
    PPPPMT
    $1.97

    Sold 2.29 No for Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? at 0.86

  • 12:58 PM
    PPPPMT
    $1.44

    Sold 11.06 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? at 0.13

Jun 23, 2026

  • 03:20 PM
    0X0x2BB662DcF684288b277487d551Bb2B94Bfd685b2-1731641046287
    $4.50

    Bought 50 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? at 0.09

  • 04:36 AM
    TATanxuan-poker
    $4.30

    Sold 5 No for Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day? at 0.86

Jun 22, 2026

  • 01:27 PM
    HAhare-Undertaker
    $3.28

    Sold 41 Yes for Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? at 0.08

Jun 21, 2026

  • 11:06 PM
    SEsebelmaestro
    $1.12

    Sold 1.29 No for Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.87

  • 11:05 PM
    SEsebelmaestro
    $1.14

    Bought 1.29545 No for Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? at 0.88

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
Event PnL
+$4,655.18
Volume
$7,175.62
Positions
NoNoNo+5
LA2
Lavincey
Event PnL
-$4.09
Volume
$1,511.67
Positions
YesYesYes+2
UL3
ultralisk
Event PnL
-$18.24
Volume
$1,093.08
Positions
YesYesNo+4
BA4
BASSATS01
Event PnL
+$19.18
Volume
$1,063.93
Positions
YesYesYes+3
AR5
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
Event PnL
-$26.16
Volume
$998.83
Positions
NoNoNo+2
OK6
Oklmntrader
Event PnL
-$9.72
Volume
$837.94
Positions
YesYes
HA7
Haradwaith
Event PnL
-$18.14
Volume
$769.16
Positions
NoNoNo+4
ER8
erenyeagr
Event PnL
-$1.13
Volume
$668.43
Positions
YesYesYes+4

常見問題

目前市場對「Oura IPO Closing Market Cap」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，$17.5B–$20B 以 24% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 $20B+（17.5%），以及 $7.5B–$10B（13.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $59.5K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，$12.5B–$15B 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 8.5%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 8.8%——形成 +0.3% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 $17.5B–$20B 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 24%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 18%，形成 -6% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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