Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

根據「Next President of the National Rally in 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Jordan Bardella 以壓倒性的 9,150% 獲勝機率主導市場；Marine Le Pen 以 445% 位居第二，Jean-Philippe Tanguy 以 180% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $3.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Jordan Bardella (9,150%)：Jordan Bardella 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,150¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Marine Le Pen (445%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Marine Le Pen 保持著 445% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 445¢。
• Jean-Philippe Tanguy (180%)：以 180% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Jean-Philippe Tanguy 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Laurent Jacobelli (170%)、David Rachline (110%)，以及 Hélène Laporte (110%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Sébastien Chenu 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The National Rally’s 2026 Congress is scheduled for October 24–25, 2026 in Orléans, where the results of the election for party president are expected to be announced.

This market will resolve to the individual who is officially announced as President of the National Rally following the National Rally’s 2026 Congress.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially elected, reelected, or otherwise announced by the National Rally as President of the National Rally following the 2026 Congress.

If no such President of the National Rally is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.