Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

根據「Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Alexander Hoffmann 以壓倒性的 4,550% 獲勝機率主導市場；Thorsten Frei 以 4,250% 位居第二，Nina Warken 以 4,250% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Alexander Hoffmann (4,550%)：Alexander Hoffmann 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,550¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Thorsten Frei (4,250%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Thorsten Frei 保持著 4,250% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,250¢。
• Nina Warken (4,250%)：以 4,250% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Nina Warken 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Michael Brand (4,250%)、Alexander Dobrindt (4,150%)，以及 Carsten Linnemann (4,100%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Günter Krings 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).

This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.

Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.

If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.