
NBA Free Agency: DeMar DeRozan Next Team
核心摘要
根據「NBA Free Agency: DeMar DeRozan Next Team」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Toronto Raptors 以壓倒性的 5,500% 獲勝機率主導市場;Atlanta Hawks 以 4,950% 位居第二,Boston Celtics 以 4,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Toronto Raptors (5,500%):Toronto Raptors 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,500¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Atlanta Hawks (4,950%):作為最可行的替代選項,Atlanta Hawks 保持著 4,950% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,950¢。
- Boston Celtics (4,950%):以 4,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Boston Celtics 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Chicago Bulls (4,950%)、Cleveland Cavaliers (4,950%),以及 Dallas Mavericks (4,950%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Denver Nuggets 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toronto Raptors | 5500.0% | — | 5500¢ | -5400¢ |
| 2 | Atlanta Hawks | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 3 | Boston Celtics | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 4 | Chicago Bulls | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 6 | Dallas Mavericks | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 9 | Houston Rockets | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 10 | LA Clippers | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 11 | Los Angeles Lakers | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 12 | Memphis Grizzlies | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 13 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 14 | New Orleans Pelicans | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 15 | New York Knicks | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 16 | Orlando Magic | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 17 | Philadelphia 76ers | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 18 | Portland Trail Blazers | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 19 | Sacramento Kings | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 20 | San Antonio Spurs | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 21 | Washington Wizards | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 22 | Team A | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 23 | Team B | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 24 | Other | 4950.0% | — | 4950¢ | -4850¢ |
| 25 | Miami Heat | 4050.0% | — | 4050¢ | -3950¢ |
| 26 | Golden State Warriors | 2250.0% | — | 2250¢ | -2150¢ |
| 27 | Brooklyn Nets | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 28 | Charlotte Hornets | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 29 | Indiana Pacers | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 30 | Milwaukee Bucks | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 31 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 32 | Phoenix Suns | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
| 33 | Utah Jazz | 1750.0% | — | 1750¢ | -1650¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to the next team DeMar DeRozan officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If DeMar DeRozan does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If DeMar DeRozan joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If DeMar DeRozan is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
常見問題
目前市場對「NBA Free Agency: DeMar DeRozan Next Team」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Toronto Raptors 以 5,500% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Atlanta Hawks(4,950%),以及 Boston Celtics(4,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
