National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?

根據「National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Yes 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• No (5,000%)：作為最可行的替代選項，No 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a political group (group politique) is officially formed in the French Senate that represents the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The political declaration forming a qualifying group must be published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France within the specified timeframe.

A group will qualify as representing the RN if it satisfies at least one of the following:

- Its official name includes "Rassemblement National" or a clear variant thereof;

- Its political declaration published in the Journal Officiel explicitly identifies the group as representing the RN;

- A majority of its full members are RN party members or were assigned an RN nuance politique by the French Ministry of the Interior at the election in which they won their seat; or

- RN national leadership publicly recognizes the group as the party's group in the Senate, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.

A mixed group containing both RN and other senators qualifies only if it meets at least one of the criteria above.

The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market.

A qualifying group must represent the National Rally. A group which represents far-right, conservative, anti-immigrant, populist, or other RN-adjacent ideas without representing the party itself will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and publications of the Official Journal of France (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/).