San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

$366.8K Vol
2026年8月2日
Active
機率趨勢
Miami Marlins 52.5%
San Diego Padres 47.5%

核心摘要

根據「San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 以壓倒性的 8,050% 獲勝機率主導市場;1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 以 6,650% 位居第二,O/U 7.5 以 5,950% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $366.8K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 (8,050%):1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8,050¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 (6,650%):作為最可行的替代選項,1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 保持著 6,650% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6,650¢。
  • O/U 7.5 (5,950%):以 5,950% 的機率位列第三,市場對 O/U 7.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)

在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:

  • 替代選項:包括 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 (5,500%)、O/U 8.5 (5,050%),以及 NRFI (5,000%)。
  • 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
11st 5 Innings O/U 2.58050.0%8050¢-7950¢
21st 5 Innings O/U 3.56650.0%6650¢-6550¢
3O/U 7.55950.0%$6345950¢-5850¢
41st 5 Innings O/U 4.55500.0%$345500¢-5400¢
5O/U 8.55050.0%$231.1K5050¢-4950¢
6NRFI5000.0%$9.4K5000¢-4900¢
7San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins4750.0%$119.6K4750¢-4650¢
81st 5 Innings O/U 5.54200.0%$204200¢-4100¢
9O/U 9.54150.0%$3.1K4150¢-4050¢
10Spread -1.53550.0%$2.4K3550¢-3450¢
11Spread -1.53550.0%$2.4K3550¢-3450¢
121st 5 Innings Spread -1.53500.0%3500¢-3400¢
131st 5 Innings O/U 6.53100.0%$13100¢-3000¢
141st 5 Innings Spread -1.52700.0%2700¢-2600¢
15Spread -2.52650.0%$4152650¢-2550¢
16Spread -2.52450.0%$4152450¢-2350¢
17Extra Innings1000.0%$531000¢-900¢

裁決規則

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 26 at 1:40PM ET:

This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 26, 2026

  • 07:59 AM
    $1.48

    Bought 2.466665 Over for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 at 0.6

  • 07:25 AM
    GOGold39
    $20.00

    Bought 40.816325 No for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.49

  • 07:21 AM
    BABaliBowl
    $1.00

    Bought 1.81818 Miami Marlins for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.55

  • 07:15 AM
    GNgnuisnot
    $46.02

    Bought 100.04 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.46

  • 07:13 AM
    XIxixihaha8879
    $45.49

    Bought 82.7 Miami Marlins for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.55

  • 07:07 AM
    REresiduum
    $5.00

    Bought 10.86 San Diego Padres for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.46

  • 07:05 AM
    2020three
    $10.00

    Bought 27.027026 Miami Marlins for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.37

  • 07:04 AM
    BLBlessedSunshine888
    $10.45

    Bought 16.07 San Diego Padres for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.65

  • 07:04 AM
    BYby-hongming
    $1.04

    Bought 1.890908 Miami Marlins for San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins at 0.55

  • 07:04 AM
    BLBlessedSunshine888
    $10.45

    Bought 16.07 San Diego Padres for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.65

  • 07:04 AM
    BLBlessedSunshine888
    $10.45

    Bought 16.07 San Diego Padres for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.65

  • 07:04 AM
    BLBlessedSunshine888
    $10.28

    Bought 16.07 San Diego Padres for Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) at 0.64

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

BA1
bands1
Event PnL
-$900.99
Volume
$60,065.68
Positions
Miami Marlins
SD2
SDTrading
Event PnL
+$727.09
Volume
$55,414.05
Positions
San Diego Padres
PH3
phonesculptor
Event PnL
+$93.12
Volume
$20,999.90
Positions
San Diego Padres
FE4
ferrariChampions2026
Event PnL
-$13.82
Volume
$15,811.10
Positions
OverSan Diego PadresSan Diego Padres
MO5
monkeymashingkeyboard
Event PnL
+$96.22
Volume
$6,414.67
Positions
Under
TH6
Thebigshot
Event PnL
-$25.01
Volume
$5,001.63
Positions
Miami Marlins
CO7
CoffeeDespiser
Event PnL
-$21.50
Volume
$4,300.00
Positions
Miami Marlins
SO8
Soarin22
Event PnL
-$21.28
Volume
$4,256.30
Positions
Miami Marlins

常見問題

目前市場對「San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 以 8,050% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5(6,650%),以及 O/U 7.5(5,950%)。該市場總成交量已達 $366.8K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

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