San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

$505.8K Vol
2026年7月10日
Active
機率趨勢
Los Angeles Dodgers 64.5%
San Diego Padres 35.5%

核心摘要

根據「San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,NRFI 以壓倒性的 78% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $505.8K,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • NRFI (78%):NRFI 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 78¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.3K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1NRFI78.0%$1.3K78¢22¢

裁決規則

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for July 2 at 10:10PM ET:

This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game.

This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game.

If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

AI 估值分析:發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場,而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布,我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比,可揭示出重大背離——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果,而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算,以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離:

  • 最佳價值標的(最高 EV):我們的模型將 NRFI 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 78% 的交易機率,而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 79.7%——形成可觀的 +1.7% EV 差。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
NRFIBest EV78.0%79.7%+1.7%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jul 2, 2026

  • 08:48 PM
    JUJubosaurus9
    $14.70

    Bought 27.222221 Under for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.54

  • 08:33 PM
    0X0x87A80EB7A2eE12E4bAcDE856B54449BD23cceb35-1779233611656
    $4.75

    Bought 8.8 Under for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.54

  • 08:23 PM
    00000347
    $1,001.84

    Bought 2087.173332 Los Angeles Dodgers for Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) at 0.48

  • 08:22 PM
    TITier0
    $15.00

    Bought 31.914892 Los Angeles Dodgers for Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) at 0.47

  • 08:17 PM
    NONottot
    $18.60

    Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31

  • 08:17 PM
    NONottot
    $14.39

    Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24

  • 08:17 PM
    CHchristmas174
    $3.00

    Bought 6.382977 Over for San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 at 0.47

  • 08:16 PM
    NONottot
    $18.60

    Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31

  • 08:16 PM
    NONottot
    $14.39

    Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24

  • 08:15 PM
    NONottot
    $18.60

    Bought 60 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.31

  • 08:15 PM
    NONottot
    $14.39

    Bought 59.958332 San Diego Padres for 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) at 0.24

  • 08:14 PM
    NONottot
    $15.00

    Bought 50 Los Angeles Dodgers for 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) at 0.3

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

PH1
phonesculptor
Event PnL
+$119.75
Volume
$24,362.31
Positions
Los Angeles Dodgers
NI2
NiFengFanPan
Event PnL
-$107.99
Volume
$21,602.78
Positions
San Diego Padres
4F3
0x4f2
Event PnL
+$3.54
Volume
$8,822.64
Positions
San Diego Padres
FE4
Feromont
Event PnL
-$40.00
Volume
$8,000.00
Positions
Los Angeles Dodgers
AN5
AnonymousUsername
Event PnL
+$7.84
Volume
$1,568.75
Positions
San Diego Padres
ML6
mlbman
Event PnL
-$7.69
Volume
$1,538.46
Positions
Los Angeles Dodgers
A67
0xa697…6031
Event PnL
+$0.47
Volume
$1,225.45
Positions
San Diego Padres
NE8
neutralwave23
Event PnL
-$2.89
Volume
$578.54
Positions
Los Angeles Dodgers

常見問題

目前市場對「San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,NRFI 以 78% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $505.8K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同?

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算,剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差,提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值(EV)最高?

最新一輪測算顯示,NRFI 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 78%,而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 79.7%——形成 +1.7% 的期望值差,是該市場中最具價值的標的。

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