Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
核心摘要
根據「Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，NRFI 以壓倒性的 53% 獲勝機率主導市場；Extra Innings 以 8.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $84.1K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- NRFI (53%)：NRFI 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 53¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.2K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Extra Innings (8.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Extra Innings 保持著 8.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 9¢。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NRFI | 53.0% | $1.2K | 53¢ | 47¢ |
| 2 | Extra Innings | 8.5% | $3 | 9¢ | 92¢ |
裁決規則
In the upcoming MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, scheduled for July 17 at 7:05PM ET:
This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game.
This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game.
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Extra Innings 當前交易價為 8.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 2.3%，形成 -6.2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRFI | 53.0% | 50.9% | -2.1% |
| Extra Innings | 8.5% | 2.3% | -6.2% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jul 17, 2026
- 07:52 AMZPZpdl$3.00
Bought 3.092766 No for Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.97
- 07:35 AMVEVeryLucky888$819.97
Bought 1673.41 New York Yankees for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.49
- 07:35 AMVEVeryLucky888$911.08
Bought 1859.34 New York Yankees for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.49
- 07:32 AMBEBeardedyoda$15.00
Bought 29.411763 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.51
- 07:12 AMJEJen-01$4.68
Bought 9 Los Angeles Dodgers for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.52
- 07:11 AMVEVeryLucky888$510.92
Bought 1064.41 New York Yankees for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.48
- 07:05 AMPUpurplegatto$46.58
Bought 91.33 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.51
- 07:03 AMPUpurplegatto$23.17
Bought 45.43 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.51
- 06:52 AMLCLCK888$375.00
Bought 707.547168 Los Angeles Dodgers for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.53
- 06:44 AMPUpurplegatto$51.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.51
- 06:44 AM——$15.00
Bought 28.301885 Los Angeles Dodgers for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees at 0.53
- 06:42 AMLUlunhomelle$1.00
Bought 2.083332 Over for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 at 0.48
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，NRFI 以 53% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Extra Innings（8.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $84.1K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Extra Innings 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 8.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 2.3%，形成 -6.2% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。