Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?

根據「Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，October 31 以壓倒性的 900% 獲勝機率主導市場；July 31 以 60% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $776，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• October 31 (900%)：October 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 900¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $60 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• July 31 (60%)：作為最可行的替代選項，July 31 保持著 60% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 60¢。

This market resolves to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen’s departure as Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The departure will be considered to be announced when Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly of France, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Le Pen has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Member of the National Assembly of France from the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Marine Le Pen and the National Assembly of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.