Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

根據「Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，April 17, 2027 以壓倒性的 1,950% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31, 2026 以 1,450% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $26，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• April 17, 2027 (1,950%)：April 17, 2027 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 1,950¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $26 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31, 2026 (1,450%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31, 2026 保持著 1,450% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1,450¢。

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister.

If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.